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With Election Day approaching, polls show the race is close

A new NYT/Siena College national poll shows that the race for the White House remains virtually tied.

 

The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied, with both candidates polling at 48%. The last NYT/Siena poll, conducted in early October, had Harris at 49% and Trump at 46%.  


Photo Credit: New York Times

Other polls have found similar results, with polls from the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and others showing Harris and Trump ahead or behind by only a few points. The WSJ poll, conducted Oct. 19-22, shows Trump with a two-point lead over Harris. The Financial Times poll shows Harris with a one-point lead over Trump. Both polls’ results are within the margin of error.

 

The latest poll results come as Election Day approaches in less than two weeks. Millions of people have already voted early, with 30 million ballots having already been cast according to a recent U.S News and World Report article. The 30 million ballots include early in-person voting as well as mail-in ballots that have been returned.

 

Both Harris and Trump have been traveling the country the past few weeks in a final attempt to win over voters. Both candidates have been holding rallies, going on podcasts, and holding town hall events with voters. Trump is scheduled to hold rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all crucial swing states that will help decide the outcome of the election. Harris held a rally in Georgia on Thursday with former President Barack Obama and is currently in Texas campaigning with Colin Allred, the Democratic candidate for the Senate.

 

The two candidates have been outlining what their plans would be if they are elected.

 

Harris has worked to outline her economic plans, with voters ranking the economy as one of their top issues. Harris’ economic agenda includes working with the private sector to build three million new homes, a $50,000 tax deduction to help people start small businesses, and expanding the Biden Administration’s efforts to negotiate lower prescription drug costs.

 

Harris has also promised to work with Congress to ban price gouging to “make clear that big corporations can’t unfairly exploit consumers during times of crisis to run up excessive corporate profits on food and groceries,” according to Harris’ economic plan.

 

Trump has proposed a tariff-heavy economic agenda. He has said he wants to implement a 10-20% across-the-board tariff on all imported goods, and a 60% tariff on all imported goods from China. Experts have warned this plan would increase inflation and decrease U.S. economic growth, and twenty-three Nobel Prize-winning economists recently endorsed Harris’ economic plans.

 

Despite Trump’s claims that other countries would pay the tariff, it is the importer who must pay the tariff, resulting in Americans paying higher prices on imported goods.


Photo Credit: CNN

Trump has also floated the idea of eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay. Harris adopted the no tax on tips policy after Trump proposed it.

 

Immigration is also a top concern among voters. A study conducted by the Pew Research Center found that it is one of the top issues for Republican voters, with 82% of Trump voters saying the issue is important to them.


Photo Credit: Pew Research Center

Another study by the Pew Research Center shows migrant encounters have plummeted in 2024 from a record high in Dec. 2023. In December, there were 249,741 encounters. In August, there were 58,038, a decrease of approximately 77%.


Photo Credit: Pew Research Center

 

Trump has said that, if elected, he will carry out a mass deportation operation called “Operation Aurora”.

 

Trump also said he would invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to accomplish this operation.


President Roosevelt used the same Act during World War II to set up Japanese internment camps. Legal experts have questioned whether Trump would have the authority to invoke the Act since it requires that an “invasion must be perpetrated or threatened by a foreign government,” according to Poynter.

 

Harris has said she will push to get an immigration bill through Congress that was tanked by Congressional Republicans back in February. The Senate had negotiated a bipartisan bill that would have provided more resources to hire additional border agents and combat criminal organizations smuggling humans and drugs into the U.S.

 

“It changes our border from catch and release to detain and deport,” according to Senator James Lankford’s website. Lankford, a Republican senator from Oklahoma, was one of the main negotiators of the bill.

 

Trump posted about the legislation on Truth Social in February, saying “As the leader of our party, there is zero chance I will support this horrible, open borders betrayal of America. It’s not going to happen, and I’ll fight it all the way.”

 

With Election Day just 11 days away, it is unlikely there will be a major shift in the polls between now and Nov. 5. To find your polling place, visit www.vote.org/polling-place-locator/.

 

 

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